All our work

Web App

Policy Simulation Model

Show the disagreement instead of averaging it away

ClientPublic analysis

A single self-contained HTML file modelling a contested public-policy question. Drag sliders for the disputed assumptions and two independent estimators re-run live, with widely-cited public figures marked on the resulting distribution.

470
Lines of code
0
Dependencies
None
Build step

The Challenge

The honest problem with contested numbers is that combining estimates into one headline figure hides the thing a reader most needs to see — that a bottom-up count and a top-down forecast are different kinds of claim and disagree for structural reasons.

Our Solution

The two estimators are kept side by side and never fused. Every parameter traces to a named source in a provenance table shipped with the model. One file, no dependencies, no build step — it runs from any static host or straight off disk, which matters for something meant to outlive a hosting decision.

Results

  • Two independent estimators shown side by side
  • Every parameter traced to a named source
  • Zero dependencies, zero build, runs from a file
  • Widely-cited public figures marked for comparison

What it was built with

Single HTML file
Entire application
Monte Carlo simulation
Distribution over assumptions
Provenance table
Parameter-to-source mapping

Want something like this for your business?

We start small. About two weeks, a firm price, and something real you can click and try before you commit to anything bigger.